Add-On Price Distribution

The add-on Price Distribution enables you for the first time to consider the range around long-term trends of the electricity markets and effects of global warming in your economic evaluations. On the one hand, this makes your investments and decisions crisis-proof, and on the other hand, you can also robustly quantify the "upside".

Extend your Energy BrainReport with an evaluation of your opportunities and risks in:

• Trading decisions and market valuations
• Assets and investment decisions
• PPAs and other contracts
• Due diligence
• Long-term implementation of business models
• Pricing of trading services and insurances

Time and again, extreme events show how sharply power prices can deviate from their long-term trend. For example, economic crises with price crashes, e. g. the 2008 financial crisis or the SARS-CoV-19 pandemic, alternated with price spikes, e. g. since 2021 the coal and gas price spike. Weather events also changed electricity market pricing, and cyclical fluctuations in electricity demand left their mark on European electricity markets.

Calculation method

For the add-on Price Distribution, we calculate your power price scenario 1.000 times with our fundamental model Power2Sim. The model parameters are randomly drawn based on historical commodity price fluctuations, demand shocks and weather years. The approach follows the idea of a monte carlo simulation: The resulting frequency distribution can be interpreted as a probability distribution.

Whether report structure, data depth, individual retrieval, subscription or ten-ticket – We will provide an individual offer according to your needs:

• Your Energy BrainReport will be supplemented by a probability distribution for baseload and capture prices, characterised by "p values", for example the P90 price. These key figures can refer to one year (annual-p price) or to an average over several years (period-p price).
• With the data delivery, you receive an excel programmed valuation tool for the calculation of your opportunities and risks per year and for a series of years.
• All assumptions, the detailed description of the methodology, the definitions of the key figures as well as the visualisation of the results are provided as a pdf file in presentation format.